The Trump presidency

Donald Trump’s election as the 47th President of the United States (US) will have a profound effect on that country’s politics, given Trump’s threats to go after his opponents, dismantle the civil service, and replace it with political appointees.

The fact that Trump’s first term saw him pulling the US out of key global arrangements such as the Paris Agreement on climate action and the Iranian nuclear deal, has stoked fears that more such moves during his second presidency could negatively impact the work being done to shore up global trade and tackle the climate crisis, both existential issues that are of great importance to all countries, including the Global South, of which India sees itself as the voice. In Europe, the most immediate fallout of a Trump presidency could be a change in the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war, given his propensity to reduce American commitments to the long-standing security architecture built around Nato.
But what of India?
While it is true that India too could feel the heat of the protectionist policies that Trump is expected to adopt while chasing his dream of making America great again by reviving domestic manufacturing, the fact is, countries around the world, including India, have become protectionist in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. Key elements of the India-US partnership, such as collaboration in defence and security and joint work underway on developing the critical technologies of the future, are insulated from a change of government and have a momentum of their own.
And Trump’s views on China — if they haven’t changed since his first term — will likely put Washington and Beijing on collision course in areas as diverse as geo-politics, trade, technology, and space, all of which could benefit India. Trump’s comments on protecting Hindus (and other minorities) in Bangladesh have also resonated in India. And finally, the US President-elect and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi share a warm relationship, and the latter was one of the first global leaders to congratulate Trump after his victory on Wednesday.
While New Delhi will be hoping that some of the impulsiveness and transactional approach associated with Trump’s first term are absent in his second, given that the bilateral relationship only strengthened in his first term, it has reason to cheer his return to the White House.